"Research is seeing what everyone else has seen and thinking what nobody else has thought."
Albert von Szent-Györgyi Nagyrapolt - Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 1937
Each paper probes deeper into the area of retirement income planning via investment portfolios (portfolios are the sum of your 401k, 403b, 457 plan, IRAs, Roths, and others).
Question: How do you measure and monitor the health of retirement income via specific calculations instead of applying common "rules of thumbs" such as the 4% rule or others?
Answer: Through processes and procedures, from research that are evidence-based, that are applied to each unique client situation.
Links to each paper may be found by hovering over the "Thought Leadership" tab above to see the pull down menu for each paper. Or on smaller screens, I've provided links, at the very bottom of this webpage, to each paper's introduction page on my site (and each of those pages links to the published paper).
None of these websites asks for your information - you may freely download any and all papers you desire from any of the sites linked to (no marketing ploys).
Published peer reviewed academic research papers published in the Journal of Financial Planning are linked to from each paper's separate web page on this site.
Google Scholar also has most of these papers online.
SSRN has the research working papers for each published paper online.
Evidence-Based Retirement Income planning, measurement and monitoring supported by Evidence-Based Investing.
Many Americans are increasingly worried about being able to enjoy a reliable income stream in retirement. Especially with volatile markets, this is a real concern for anyone approaching or in retirement. Rising health costs, increasing longevity and potential tax increases just add to the worry and uncertainty.
While Wall Street has tried to design products to address the problem of reliable income in retirement, such as annuities or target date funds, these tend to be incomplete solutions with similar results expected in the future. Such a product focus is akin to a retiree of the 1980’s or 1990’s depending on a product designed then to protect them now. Even defined benefit plans are coming under strain today.
Instead, I believe investors should recognize that retirement income is a dynamic and ongoing process and thus should have appropriate rules in place to make proper decisions as economic and market changes occur. In addition, retirement income should be planned in reverse without attempting to make forward predictions.
Many people believe retirement planning is the act of saving in a 401k, IRA or Roth. That is how you accumulate retirement resources. In truth, retirement planning is more about how to live on those retirement resources without outliving them. Here is research that explains how to do that without products, but with indexing. Also note that these papers address the investment portfolio measurement and monitoring aspects. In other words, how to manage portfolios for income that is ADDED to pension, Social Security, reverse mortgage, immediate annuity income, and other fixed sources of income for the total amount of income supporting and sustaining your Standard of Living.
While these papers can be a bit on the technical side, they have important implications for how to invest for and in retirement. I'm pleased to contribute to the body of knowledge of the profession while I seek to solve these retirement problems for my own clientele.
Here are articles that summarizes the thoughts and concepts from the series of research projects on my Blog ... presented with a concept of what I call "Dynamic Updating" that times retirement income to the statistics of period life tables, rather than another common rule of thumb approach of "picking an age" you want retirement to go to (nobody knows that, so why speculate, when statistics provides insights regardless of how old you are).
I apply this and other related research directly to your retirement income planning, either in pre- or post-retirement. Hence, my motto: To get you to, and through, retirement. My specialty is retirement income planning: how to plan for it while working, and manage it while retired.
As a result of research contributions and thought leadership, I'm a retirement planning expert through the application of peer reviewed retirement income research to your life's situation and unique standard of living. The goal? So you can focus on living retirement and not worry about how you might fund retirement.
Larry and his colleagues have co-authored papers published in the Journal of Financial Planning (home page), * one of the industry’s top blind peer-reviewed monthly publication that seeks to publish original scholarly articles covering all areas of financial services. The Journal’s subscribers are practitioners, academics and policy makers in the financial services industry. A systematic review process is in place to ensure the highest standards.
These papers discuss how a withdrawal rate for retirement income may change dynamically over time as a person ages through retirement. Time is measured through the use of longevity life tables. This dynamic change is compared to static application of withdrawal rates that have subsequent inflation adjustments to the initial dollar value. The research also investigates market declines, and how sequence risk in the markets (market uncertainty and volatility) may be addressed by retiree's in the future when they are living on their retirement savings.
These research papers demonstrate how to extend retirement income from a portfolio into very old ages, through 110-plus using longevity tables, without giving up control of the assets.
“The statistician George Box said that 'All models are wrong, but some are useful.' ” Dwight Eisenhower, supreme Allied Commander in WWII, said that “Plans are nothing; planning is everything.” I say that models are nothing; modeling is everything, because a model will help you figure out what is going on here. ” Essentially, modeling through the use of various statistics for different variables leads to "Decomposing large problems into smaller problems for which solutions are known or can be calculated."
Quotes from Dr. Sam L. Savage, Executive Director of Probability Management.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to making uncertainty actionable. Dr. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012). He is an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and a Fellow of Cambridge University’s Judge Business School. He is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty. Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University.
*Note - Tech tip: If a second window does not pop up and open, you may have a pop up blocker active. You may bypass a pop up blocker, anytime case by case, by holding down the shift key while clicking the link you wish to open.
Below are the links to each academic, peer-reviewed, paper's page on this site, with links to the published paper on its' page:
9th & 10th Papers: Retirement Income Paradigms and Software Programming
8th Paper: Simulations versus Models
5th Paper: A 3D Retirement Model Based on Actual Ages
4th Paper: What to Do When Markets Go Down
3rd Paper: Market Returns Sequences During Retirement
1st Paper (working paper): In Search of Your Numbers